Thursday, March 10, 2011

Championship Week Part 2 and Another Digression

I still think Pitt should get a number 1 seed at this point.  Kemba Walker, who was beaten out by Hansborough for Big East Player of the Year honors, may have had a little extra motivation today.  Pitt switched on the pick and roll, and Walker made Pitt's big man look silly in executing a perfect step-back.   How can Pitt be bumped to a number 2 seed?  It's all up to Duke and Notre Dame.  If those 2 teams win their conference tourneys, they deserve number 1 seeds in my opinion.  Yes, I know the ACC is sub-par, but Carolina and Florida State are no slouches and Maryland, who plays Duke tomorrow, is desperate.  Va Tech is playing well, too.  Duke will not have a cake walk.  I could see the committee considering ND and Pitt as number 1's if Duke loses to MD, but Coach K and Duke's reputation will make the Committee think twice about not giving the ACC a 1 seed.  However, even if Duke and ND win out, it may not be a bad thing for Pitt to get a number 2 seed as it may allow them to stay back East, which would be a good thing for them. They're tough, but they're a truly regional team.  Going out West would be a tough road.

UNC winning the ACC should make an interesting decision for the Commitee.  No team with 6 losses should be a shoo-in for a 1 seed, but UNC has lost to the following teams: Minnesota, Texas, Vandy, Illinois, and Ga Tech (Jan 16th) with Larry Drew II.  After that loss, they lost to Duke in Cameron...and that's it.  They haven't lost in over a month.  They have no bad losses except for Ga Tech, and the Heels started to ease Larry Drew II from their rotation since then (and now he's gone).  If they win the ACC Tournament (and beat Duke in the process), they have a case to make for a number 1 seed.  However, the fact that St John's smoked Duke earlier this year, and St John's was the 5 seed in the Big East Tournament, should say something as to the relative strengths of the Big East v the ACC. 

Personally, I think UNC does less with their talent than any other team in the country.  They have more McDonald's All Americans (by double) than any other program in the NCAA since the McDonald's All American game was created in the 70's.  Given their ability to recruit, they should be at least twice as successful as Duke.  Yet they aren't. 

I have to give Duke credit over UNC and and every other program in the country.  Duke HAS NEVER BEEN ACCUSED OF VIOLATING RECRUITMENT RULES.  The Duke program should be the model for all other programs in Division I.  Yes, I know that Duke is a pocket IVY League School.  Yes I know Duke's endowment is around $5 BILLION.  Here's the point.  Any player that can survive in Duke's basketball program will be able to do well in society given what they were able to do under Coach-K.  Isn't that the point?  I know that most basketball players at Duke major in Sociology.  However, majoring in Sociology at Duke and getting your degree when you are a member of their men's basketball team is amazing.  As for the players who have chosen to enter the NBA draft...ask them if Coach-K discouraged them from going into the NBA draft.  Kyrie Irving is going number 1 in all likelihood, and Coach-K has been nothing but supportive.

BTW...it boggles my mind that UCONN was the 9 seed in the Big East.  They are very good, and are led by a Hall of Fame coach.  The Big East is strong.

Elsewhere in the Big East, I believe St. John's has earned a 5 seed with their loss to Syracuse today.  They are still the story of the year in my opinion.  DJ Kennedy is out for the year, so that hurts the Red Storm's chances in that he is such a versatile player.  Nobody, including myself, thought SJU would be in this position.  The Orange can earn a 2 seed if they win the Big East Tourney, but a 3 is assured for them.  UCONN can creep into a 3 seed potentially if they can beat Syracuse.  Georgetown has 6 seed written all over them.  West Va and Cincy are no better than 8 or 9's as far as I'm concerned.  Huggy Bear's reputation and UWV's Final Four appearance last year may get them as high as a 6 seed, however.

Louisville continues to impress me despite a few hiccups during the year.  They are showing an inside, kick to the outside shooter game, pressure defense, and transition game that will make them a tough out.  In addition, their guards go to the rack hard and effectively.  I think they'd be a nightmare 3 or 4 seed if they can make it to the Sweet Sixteen.  I can see them giving an Ohio State or Kansas trouble because Louisville strips the ball from big men so well and force opponents to guard the 3 point line and the paint.  If I'm Carolina or Duke, I don't want to see them.  At the end of the day, unless you have a clear talent advantage and the right game plan, Rick Pitino's teams don't bow down.  They force you to play well to beat them.  The Cardinals have a nice resume...they beat Butler, St John's, Nova, Syracuse, West Va (once), UCONN, and Pitt.  They also smoked Marquette tonight.

Michigan State deserves a bid, even if they lose to Purdue.  Outside of Coach-K, Tom Izzo deserves more leeway than any other coach in the country.  State played a very tough road prior to their conference schedule, and the Big Ten was tough.  The Committee should just let them in. 

Here's my conference breakdown as it stands today:

Big East - 11 teams - I thought this was a long shot, but .500 in the Big East - punch your ticket: Pitt, ND, Syracuse, UCONN, St John's, Louisville, West Va, Villavova, Cincy, Marquette, Georgetown.
Big 10 - 6 teams - Penn State, no way, no how. Ohio St, Purdue, Wisconsin, Mich St, Mich, Illinois
Big 12 - 5 teams - Colorado won a big game, but this conference was top heavy.  Kansas, Texas, K-State, A&M, Mizzou
SEC - 4 teams - the winner of Georgia and Alabama punches their ticket.  This ain't football...sorry Tennessee. Bids: Florida, Vandy, Kentucky, winner of UGA v Alabama
Mountain West - 4 teams - UNM should get in.  This conference was better than the SEC and equal to the PAC-10.  Bids: BYU, SDSU, UNLV, UNM
PAC-10 -  4 teams - USC deserves it.  They beat Texas, Tennessee, UCLA, and Arizona. Bids: Arizona, UCLA, USC, Washington.
Atlantic-10 - 4 teams* - Duquesne should get a bid if they win tomorrow.  This league is better than the SEC.  Temple, Xavier, Richmond...TBD, Duquesne
ACC - 3 teams*  - the winner of the BC v Clemson means little, unless the winner beats Fla St. This was not your daddy's ACC.  Duke, UNC, Fla St., BC or Clemson TBD
West Coast - 2 teams - St. Mary's and Gonzaga are more than qualified
Colonial -  2 teams - GM and ODU can be sleepers in the Tourney

Watch Long Island University, they have a lot of talent.  Once the seedings come out, I will give my upset watch.

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