Churn, Churn, Churn

Okay, the top ten is on its ear again.  Ohio State jumped over Kansas and took the top spot, while my BYU Cougars skulked up to the number 3 spot.  While I have been singing BYU's praises all year, I did not see them ascending this high in the polls.  However, I did say this team would be lethal come March.  It looks like the scoring balance they are going to need is emerging.  There is a question mark about their defense, but any team that puts up the numbers BYU does offensively may not have to worry about it.  Duke's and UCONN's defenses have been underrated in the past because of pace at which they played.  More trips up and down the floor mean more points for both sides. Hypothetically, if you're up 24 with 6 minutes to play (as Duke and UCONN were often when they had their championship-caliber teams), then it is only sporting to let off the pedal and coast to victory.  I'm not suggesting that BYU is in the league of either Duke's or UCONN's championship teams...I'm just suggesting that defensive intensity is not required when you blow a game open as BYU has done quite often this year.

Look at the Red Storm...they are now ranked 15th in the country!  Holy smokes.  They've managed to knock off most of the top teams in the Big East.  In the last month alone, St. John's has beaten Duke, UCONN, Pitt and Villanova.  They've managed to split with Georgetown and Notre Dame as well.  As amazing as it seems, they could be a favorite to win the Big East Tournament with the home court advantage.  If they can manage to hold on to a bye, look out for them.  BTW...it is unprecedented for a conference to have 8 teams in the top 20 at this point in the year, but the Big East has managed it.  If they get 11 teams in the Tournment, it will be virtually impossible for the Big East to avoid head-to-head play on the first weekend if they all win their first games.  This is the price of success.

As for the ESPN NCAA projections, they have slid another A-10 team in there to make 3 teams from the league, but I still think they are over-valuing the SEC and Big-12.  Georgia and Baylor do not belong at this point.  Come to think of it, neither does Penn State at 15-12, although I think the Big 10 is one of the top 3 conferences in college hoops this year.  Memphis deserves a bid over Penn State unless the Lions beat Ohio State this week. 

Duke at Carolina is going to be a huge game for both teams.  They are playing for seeding in both the ACC Tournament and the NCAA's.  It's a great game to watch regardless of the circumstances, but when there's something on the line, that game is delightful.  Carolina also lost a tough one at Cameron a few weeks ago.  I look forward to watching as always.  Oh yeah, Dean Smith turned 80 today.  He's the 5th best coach in college history.  God bless him.

More Evidence for The Atlantic 10 and A Non Sequitur

I watched Temple play Duke at Cameron tonight, and I think the Owls' performance strengthens my argument for the Atlantic 10 deserving more than 2 teams in the NCAA Tournament.  Duke does not lose to non-conference opponents in Cameron Indoor Stadium.  I firmly believe they could beat any team in the country this year by double digits at Cameron.  Temple lost by 17 tonight, but they aren't used to the hell that is Duke at home.  The Blue Devils have slapped around all their opponents at Cameron this year.  Temple could have won that game if not for a few turnovers.

The last time Duke lost to a non-conference opponent at Cameron was January 26, 2000 against St. John's.  I was at the game, and let's just say I was treated better at Veterans Stadium when I wore my Phil Simms jersey in 1983.  If I had been older than 14 (and more than about 105 pounds) at the Giants - Eagles game that year, I'm sure I would have been tarred and feathered.  However, being chastised by erudites on the way out of  Cameron was not pleasant.  I'm just happy the Duke fans were not able to determine that I was an NC State alum.  I'm sure I would have heard things like, "Do you realize Duke's endowment is 12 times the size of NC State's?"  Of course, I would have fed into their ridicule by responding something like, "No way, jerks, I was on practice squad for 2 weeks and I've been in the locker room with the State guys."


Now for an observation -

In sitting at home tonight switching between Temple v. Duke, DePaul v. St. John's, and The Bucks at Knicks (Melo's 1st game), I realize the true value of High Definition (HD) channels.  I have Verizon Fios, which does not have any of the MSG Channels in HD (not surprisingly, since MSG is owned by the "jackaloons" at Cablevision).  Since St. John's and the Knicks were on MSG channels in standard definition (SD) and the Duke Game was on ESPN2 HD, I could easily compare the quality of SD versus HD.  I have had HD channels for a couple of years, but had no reason to put either the Knicks or St. John's on until this week.  It's bad enough that I'm an NC State alumnus...I saw no reason to completely ruin my basketball season over the past few years by watching dismal NC State teams in addition to the Red Storm and Knicks.

When I attempt to watch hoops in SD, I feel like one of the "In-Valids" from the movie Gattica...myopic.  Now I know how my mother feels, with her "Coke-Bottle" glasses.  Watching a game in HD is like being a hawk...able to distinguish all sorts of minute details from far away.  I can see "Plumlee" on the back of one of the Blue Devils' jersey from the deep camera in HD.  DePaul v. St. John's might as well be Duke at NC State, because I can only distinguish the blue and white uniforms from the white and red jerseys.  Seriously, it's like playing Atari 2600 games today...the graphics appear primitive.

Tournament Field By Conference

ESPN does a phenomenal job predicting the NCAA Tournament field.  At this point there are a couple of conferences that have been given one too many bids and a couple that have been dissed.

Despite what Butler was able to do last year, the Horizon deserves no more than one team.  The conference champion should go...that's it.  Butler, Cleveland State, and Valpo have beaten nobody.  Giving this conference more than one bid is a mistake.

The SEC deserves no more than 5 teams.  Georgia beat Kentucky earlier in the year, but have no other quality wins.  I'm sorry, but 7-5 in the SEC at this point in the year is not impressive.  Tennessee should be the last team in for the SEC, and they deserve no better than an 11 seed.  I don't care that they beat Vandy tonight...this league is sub-par.

The Big 12 is similar to the SEC.  Nebraska and Kansas State have beaten Kansas, but nobody else of consequence.  While the giant killer wins are impressive, most of the Big 12 is awful.  Four teams from this league is fair...five tops.

The Atlantic 10 can make a sound argument for 3 teams in the field.  Temple and Xavier are locks at this point, but Richmond and Duquesne can make a case as well.  The A-10 is just as competitive a league as the SEC this year and is better than the PAC-10.  Furthermore, the A-10 is a half a step behind the ACC.  More will be revealed when we see Temple play Duke this week, but I suspect the Owls will hang tough.

We'll see how things shape up, but the PAC 10, SEC and BIG 12 should not be given the number of bids that ESPN has slotted for them.

Turnover

This should not be surprising, but last week showed how much parity exists in college basketball.  Number 1, Number 2, Number 3, and Number 4 all went down.  Kansas went down to a motivated K-State.  Texas was wide open to take over the top spot until they went to Nebraska.  No help there, as the Huskers showed a lot of grit.  Ohio State and Pitt could have made arguments to take the top spot, but Ohio State was humbled by Purdue in Indiana and Pitt was the latest Big East powerhouse to get whooped by St. John's.

Now we have Duke sliding back into the top spot.  I thought Duke would adjust when they lost Irving, and they have not been disappointing despite the loss to the David that is St. John's at the Garden.  Speaking of which, I wrote that St. John's was out of Tournament contention after they lost to Cincinnati at THE LOU.  I would love to think that Steve Lavin read what I wrote and used it as motivation.  Think about buzzing 4 top ten teams within a few weeks after losing the St. Bonaventure and Fordham earlier in the season.  Unbelievable.  Now they're in the top 25.

The pollsters rewarded SDSU and BYU for holding serve last week, but did not allow them to leapfrog over the top power conference teams.  This is fair - SDSU did a great job in beating a respectable New Mexico team, but it isn't like playing Purdue like Ohio State had to do.  So SDSU is in the top 5 in the ESPN poll, but they have a rightful place behind both Kansas and Ohio State.

This I find amazing - there are 5 teams with number 1 votes in the ESPN/USA Today poll (there are 6 in the AP, but I usually ignore that poll...I find the ESPN poll to be more accurate).  In pre-season and for the first couple of weeks, this is not all that odd because there is always disagreement before the teams get into the meat of their seasons.  However, we're almost in March and there are 5 teams with number 1 votes, and several more teams within 250 points of the top spot.  Talk about parity.  The last time there were 5 teams with number 1 votes this late in the season was 5 years ago. 

I still think Pitt has the best chance to win it all because they rebound, play very solid D, and can shoot from beyond the arc.  However, I have no idea how this year's version of March Madness will turn out. There's just so much talent across the board.  Last year I looked at Duke after the seedings came out and penciled them right in because of the potential match-ups they had.  This year, I doubt it will be all that clear cut.  It's exciting, but I have a feeling that my bracket is going to be brutal this year.

Twelve Teams That Can Easily Make The Final Four

At this point in the season, I believe the following teams are in the best position to make a run to the Final Four.

Kansas - big, athletic forwards, quick guards, super coach.
Texas - a superstar forward and rabbit-like in transition
Duke - they are the champs until someone takes it
Villanova - if healthy, maybe the best overall guard play in the country
Pitt - my favorite to cut down the nets with a healthy Ashton Gibbs
Georgetown - as gritty a team as they come
Notre Dame - great shooters and enough rebounding to make any opponent nervous...also, "sneaky" athletic
UCONN - great shot blocker and a wonderful scorer
Wisconsin - deadly shooters and the ability to win "ugly"
Arizona - underrated...lost to 3 ranked teams and only have 4 total losses.  Sean Miller is a great young coach.
Ohio State - the best big man in the country and great secondary scorers
Syracuse - a mezmerizing zone, mammoth big men and guards who can step up if needed

Honorable Mentions:

North Carolina - Talented and,since Larry Drew II departed, gaining momentum
BYU - they have the best scorer in the country
San Diego State - Steve Fisher has seen it all before, and they are athletic
St. Mary's - They have supplanted Gonzaga as the best team in their league, and we've seen what Gonzaga can do in March

Scramble Up Top

My Top Five:

1. Kansas
2. Pitt
3. Ohio State
4. Duke, 4a. Texas

Now that Ohio State has been beaten, it looks like Kansas will take the top spot.  Of course, Texas has a legitimate argument to make after beating Kansas in Lawrence earlier this year.  The Big 12's top 2 have stepped up, and deserve high spots in the polls.  I believe that Duke deserves as high a ranking as Texas, though.  Why?  Duke has lost 2 games this year, at Florida State (likely the 3rd best team in the ACC behind Duke and UNC) and at St. John's (at the Garden, and St. John's is one of the hottest teams in the country). Duke also beat a red hot UNC team this week.  Also, Texas lost to USC, who has 7 losses in a sub-par PAC-10.

Don't overlook what the Pitt Panthers did today.  Winning at Villanova is no small feat, especially since Pitt was missing their top scorer in Ashton Gibbs.  Down 4 at half, Pitt grinded out a win against competition that made Kansas's and Texas' look like Division II opponents.  Nova is so much better than Iowa State and Baylor that it isn't even fair to compare them.  In addition, Pitt beat Texas earlier in the year.

Of course, Kansas has only lost once this year and Selby was out today.  I think they deserve the top spot, but Pitt deserves the number 2 spot, barely behind Kansas.  Pitt's Big East schedule has been brutal, and while I respect the Big 12, it isn't even close to the Big East.  (Nor is any other conference for that matter.)

Ohio State should, in all fairness, slip no further than 3rd.  The Big Ten is a tough league; it's tougher than the Big 12 and not as brutal as the Big East.  The Buckeyes have done well all year.  However, Pitt's accomplishments have been more significant.

I believe there are no fewer than 12 teams in the country that are, as of this post, legitimately capable of winning it all.  The parity is unprecedented in college basketball history.  I will give you the teams and my logic next Tuesday.

The Red Storm Cometh?

A few weeks ago I wrote St. John's off as being incapable of making the NCAA Tournament.  Since then, SJU has beaten Duke, UCONN and lost to Georgetown and UCLA.  Yes, they beat Rutgers, but they still have work to do.  The loss to Cincinnati was big because SJU could be competing for a spot in the NCAA Tournament with the Bearcats directly at the time the field is selected.  If SJU loses at Cincy, then the Selection Committee will see a season sweep for the Bearcats against SJU and, although Cincy hasn't beaten anybody in conference of note, it may hurt the Red Storm.  If St. John's can beat Cincy and win 3 of their last 6 Big East Games, they will have punched their ticket.

Personally, I would love to see SJU in the dance.

Duke v Carolina Tonight

Although Duke is expected to win by double digits tonight, don't count out Carolina.  They're playing well and they're at home in a match-up for first place in the ACC.  If the Heels can finish strong, they could play their way into a 2 seed despite not having been in the top 25 for most of the season.  Yes, I know that is a stretch, but let's say they beat Duke once in the regular season, reel off another 4 ACC wins, and make it to the finals of the ACC tournament.  They would have a nice resume, especially since they will have improved their play later in the season.

If UNC is going to beat Duke, they have their best shot in Chapel Hill later in the season.  However, I expect that they will be able to keep this game close tonight.  After Larry Drew II decided to transfer, Carolina scored 89 points in beating Florida State by 20.  Florida State is considered to be one of the best defensive teams in the country...they only give up  61.8 points a game.  Kendall Marshall, who was sharing time with Drew and is now in charge of the Heels' offense, had 16 assists.  That is unbelievable for a college game.  Basically, the Heels handed Marshall more minutes and he gave them a silly number of assists.  He turned the ball over 3 times - an assist to turnover ratio of better than 5:1.  Not a bad trade.  A lot of talking heads were bellowing about how devastating Drew II's departure from Carolina was for the team.  Nonsense.  Marshall reminds me of Mark Jackson; not fleet of foot, but very much in control and possessing great court vision.

We'll see what Marshall can do in Cameron tonight.  That shoebox separates the men from the boys.

Carolina Without Drew II

Larry Drew II decided to transfer from UNC today, and I am willing to bet that the Tarheels will be better off without him.  As much as any team in the country, UNC relies on a system.  Roy Williams' version of this system (based on Dean Smith's system, of course), relies on a point guard that distributes the basketball and knows when to push the ball off a rebound, a blocked shot and, to a lesser extent, off a made basket (because it is more difficult to push the ball when you have to inbound it).

Carolina point guards do not have to be money shooters, and they certainly don't have to be shoot first point guards (that is counter productive).  Ty Lawson was a good scorer for Carolina, but his numbers were gravy - he was not the focal point of that offense.  Hansbrough was the player around whom they ran their offense, and the supporting cast (i.e., Ellington, Green, Davis) played a big part in their success as well.  Lawson was so unbelievably quick that he wound up getting lay-ups and wide open jumpers.  Nobody questioned what his primary job was...push the ball and run the offense.

Raymond Felton averaged 12.9 points a game in 2005 when the Heels won the NCAA Tournament.  He had 17 in the final against Illinois, but his value was in his ability to push the ball quickly and get the ball into the hands of other players for high percentage shots.

It seems to me that Larry Drew II was not satisfied with his role.  UNC is one of the programs in the country where, if you are not buying into the system, you have to go.  My guess is that the unwritten rule is do what we tell you to do, or declare for the draft (or we bench you until you decide to go elsewhere in this case).   UNC will hand the reigns to a freshman in Kendall Marshall, although they obviously had made it clear to Drew that he  had to conform to their system or risk losing minutes, which is what they did in January. They probably banked on Drew stepping up, but they're certainly not losing much with his decision.  After all, Marshall was a McDonald's All-American.  The consensus was that Marshall was the best passer / playmaker in the country last year.

I think Drew had chances to adapt his game to the role the UNC coaching staff needed him to play, and did not want to do it.  One thing this proves to me is that, no matter how good you think you are, you're not bigger than UNC basketball.  As an NC State graduate, I both hate them (which is required) and respect them for it.

Carolina Could Be A Team To Watch

The Tarheels have cracked the top 25 after a disappointing November and December.  There is a ton of talent on this team, but early season expectations were far too high.  The pre-season hype around Harrison Barnes was a microcosm of UNC's problem early in the year.  This team is young, and it looks like they've worked through the chemistry problems that plagued them before the new year. 

Carolina is not all the way there, as they haven't demonstrated the killer transition game that Roy Williams' teams have mastered over the years.  Typically, UNC gets a third of their points on the secondary break, and I didn't even see that type of efficiency against an NC State team that has shown itself to be poor at transition defense all year.

The good news for Carolina fans is that Harrison Barnes is playing better.  He can shoot from beyond the arc and has shown that he can go to the hole with authority and finish.  My guess is that they will be playing their best basketball of the year in March and could make some noise.  They need to overcome their weaknesses, though...their lack of beef down low and their 3 point shooting.  If they could shoot a little better from beyond the arc this could solve both their problems.