Tuesday, April 5, 2011

UCONN Wins the Dog Fight

Butler couldn't buy a bucket last night in what was probably the worst performance in Final Four history.  UCONN's team defense was phenomenal, but Butler missed at least 5 easy shots and 12 good shots.  While UCONN outrebounded Butler by 51 to 40, Butler actually grabbed more offensive rebounds than the Huskies and just couldn't convert.  Other than just having a bad night, I think there is one player who affected Butler's shooting more than any other...Alex Oriachi.  He's my MVP of the game.

Oriachi's 4 blocks came on sure lay-ups or chip shots.  His presence altered many others - there is no doubt that Butler's big men were rushing shots because Oriachi and Roscoe Smith had them intimidated.  On the glass, Oriachi grabbed 11 boards and chipped in 11 points on 5 for 6 shooting.  He only played 25 minutes, and he made them all count.  Walker was deserving of the Final Four MOP and Lamb deserved consideration as MVP last night, but I am giving Oriachi the nod because this was a defensive game and he played the best defense.  Shelvin Mack did not have a point inside the 3 point line.  Howard got nothing in the paint either.  The put backs that he usually gets weren't there; the room and confidence to operate in the post weren't there. 

Finally, this wasn't discussed by the press, but Butler's bench was actually worse than their starters.  They were 0 for 6 from the floor and had only 6 rebounds.  UCONN's bench had 12 points and 17 rebounds.  As I predicted yesterday, UCONN's rebounding combined with the fact that the refs did not call this game tight led to their victory.  If Butler had gotten a few calls inside, allowing them to get to the line a few more times, they may have had a chance.  When the refs let them play, it always favor the bigger team. 

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Yesterday's Wars

Both games were hotly contested yesterday, and they both went according to form.  In the first game, Butler did a good job of getting the ball into the post and getting to the free throw line.  This allowed them to stay even with VCU in the first half despite not shooting well from the floor.  Free throws give you 3 things:  easy points (assuming your team can shoot free throws), tempo control, and fouls against your opponent.  VCU wanted to push the pace and take advantage of superior quickness, but when the clock stopped every minute or 2, it became tough for them to dictate pace.  They also had to adjust defenses to protect Skeen.  Butler took a lead into the locker room at the half because they rebounded well and converted free throws.

At the beginning of the 2nd half, VCU did a great job of getting the ball to Jamie Skeen to grab the lead, but Shelvin Mack was able to score 10 straight points to give Butler a working cushion that they rode until VCU had to start fouling - at that point, the game was over.  I thought Matt Howard's put back to put Butler up six with about a minute left was the dagger.  VCU deserves credit...they played hard the whole game.  Even though they had a deeper bench than Butler, pressing takes a lot of energy.  I thought VCU left it all out on the court.  Shaka Smart will have a nice fat deal very soon, because a lot of schools still need coaches.  However, I thought it was a little odd that one of Smart's assistants was doing all the talking during the "live look-in" at halftime.  It appeared as though the AC was telling Smart what to tell the players when they went back into the locker room.  Smart looked like Ronald Reagan.  (RIMSHOT!)

The CBS / TNT commentators (Barkley, Kenny Smith, Greg Gumbel, Seth Davis, and Greg Anthony) were stepping all over each others' toes.  There are too many people clogging up that stage to make any sense out of their analyses.  Overall, I think Greg Anthony is provided the best analyses of all the broadcasters.  His comment that :Butler "can play well, without playing well" may not have been stated with the most eloquence, but it was 100% accurate.  (Converting free throws isn't sexy, but it's effective.)  Barkley thought VCU would wear Butler down in the 2nd half (which definitely did not happen).  Seth Davis said Butler would win because of their coaching.  You gotta give us more than that, Seth.  You can say that about any team in any game.  The broadcasters' banter was approaching dialogue appropriate in a pub setting...not national TV. 

The second game was ugly in a lot of ways, but still fun to watch.  Calipari definitely messed up in the last minute by not fouling immediately after UCONN got the ball with about 45 seconds to play, but Kentucky got very lucky in getting the turnover with 18 seconds left.  Also, Kentucky was clueless on their last possession.  Granted, Kemba Walker played great defense in forcing Knight to give up the ball, but the Kentucky players were not prepared.  I would have run some sort of hand-off / ball screen play to get one of their guards into the middle and driven the ball much sooner.  Taking a contested 3 is not the result you want, especially since they had time when they took possession.

While Calipari deserves credit for getting this team into the Final Four, yesterday's game was an example of the risk of recruiting players who are likely to be "one and done."  Even the most talented freshman make freshman mistakes.  Kentucky missed free throws, sloppily turned the ball over, and took a lot of bad shots.  On the flip side, you need the horses to win, and it is commendable that Calipari seems to be able to get young players to improve over the course of a season.  He did the exact same thing at Memphis a few years ago and just missed the Final Four last year.  Of Kentucky's 3 super freshman, I think Lamb and Knight should return for one more year.  Terrence Jones has nothing further to prove at the college level.  His 15 rebounds yesterday were proof that he is a man among boys in college.  (Kentucky could be a very tough team next if they can keep Knight and Lamb around.  Their recruiting class is stellar, with 4 McDonald's All-Americans.) 

Other than the mental errors, Kentucky was not deep enough to play in such a physical game.  They were worn out, especially since the clock was running so much late in the second half.  The under 8 minute official time out didn't come until under 4 minutes.  It seemed like all of their shots fell short later in the game.  Props to UCONN for making Kentucky work all game on both ends of the floor.  It is nearly impossible to play only 7 in a game like that and have anything in the tank left in the waning moments. 

Calhoun and his staff deserve credit for putting Kemba Walker in more of a distributor role in the 1st half and running more sets for him in the second half. He got his 18 points, but he dished out a bunch of assists, grabbed 6 rebounds and played phenomenal defense.  Walker made two of the best defensive plays I've seen all season when he stripped Knight leading to a lay up and when he stopped a breakaway by outrunning the offensive player and getting a block to prevent a sure dunk.  He's a winner, and represents the best of New York City basketball...toughness, dedication, and smarts.  I absolutely love the guy.

Outside of Walker, the UCONN big men came up with some big blocks in the game and UCONN as a whole stepped up their rebounding in the 2nd half.  They had 4 players with at least 6 rebounds.  Their scoring was balanced as well, with their big men stepping up and getting their dunks off of great interior passing.  I think they deserve a lot of credit for forcing Kentucky into taking a lot of bad shots.  Of course, Kentucky's youth contributed to it, but UCONN ultimately dictated the game through team defense.  They also ran some great offensive sets against Kentucky's zone.  It was a well deserved win.

BTW, I have a beef with Kentucky...I think they played a dirty game in the 2nd half.  Basketball is obviously physical, but I saw a couple of Kentucky players take cheap shots, including a groin shot in front of the camera.  It reminded me of Georgetown in the 80's.  Of course, UCONN may have disguised similar rough play more effectively...Calhoun's teams have been known to be thuggish on occasion.

Tomorrow, UCONN will do their best to get Howard into foul trouble early.  If they can limit Howard, then it will be that much easier to limit Mack's offensive output.  Butler will fan Kemba Walker and try to provide "flash" help when he is dribbling to at least make him alter his driving angles.  This game could be decided by the refs.  If they decide to call the game tight, then it will work in Butler's favor.  If the high ball screens Butler runs turn into UCONN fouls as opposed to UCONN redirecting the ball handler, then UCONN may not be able to dictate what Butler is able to do on offense.  If Mack is allowed to dribble drive, he will have a huge night.

Walker will have to earn his points, so his ability to dish to his bigs when he is stymied will be crucial.  They need to finish, and I am pretty sure they will get their share of dunks.  Obviously, UCONN is more athletic, but Butler is more than adept at neutralizing teams who possess an athletic advantage over them.  This game will hinge on rebounding .  Why?  I don't see either team getting more than a dozen turnovers.  I don't see either team shooting much better than the other.  And I certainly don't see one team getting out-coached.  That leaves rebounding.  I'll take UCONN by 4.