Sunday, January 30, 2011

Sometimes I Hit the Nail on the Head

The following is from a piece by Dana O'Neil of ESPN that I read today:

"As I watched the final seconds tick away in a 93-78 St. John’s win over third-ranked Duke, I kept thinking of Gary Charles.

The longtime director of the Long Island Panthers, Charles is one of those guys you go to when you want to get your arms around what matters and who matters in New York City basketball.

Back in September, I called him and asked him what the most important thing Steve Lavin could do at St. John’s.

“Win back New York...Everybody’s been waiting for that. There’s nothing like sitting in the Garden, watching St. John’s. People want that back.’"

I wrote a similar opinion in my January 11th post: "St. John's fans have been waiting for so long to go crazy in the Garden that the boost to the program if the Red Storm can win tomorrow (against Syracuse) would be enormous."  It turns out that the Orange beat St. John's pretty easily, but St. John's more than redeemed themselves today when they blew out Duke today at the Garden.

Since St. John's and Duke have been scheduling this game regularly, there have been some great games.  I saw the Red Storm roll into Cameron Indoor Stadium in 2000 and beat the Number 2 Blue Devils. Bootsy Thornton hit a contested 3 at the buzzer in one of the most exciting college basketball games I have ever seen live.  There were 8 future NBA players participating in that game, blocking shots into the seats, going coast to coast and throwing down monster dunks, and hitting 3's that normal college players have no business attempting.  By the way, the definition of isolation is being the only SJU fan at the deathtrap that is Cameron 5 minutes after Duke loses.  I may have been the only person in that hot box wearing red and clearly would have been lynched if they had found out I went to a state school. 

In an equally great game the year before, Bootsy dropped 40 on Duke at the Garden.  Duke wound up winning in overtime, but Thornton and Artest were absolutely amazing.  Recently, Duke has dominated the series, but this year's game has re-kindled a flame that had been burning out.

I am so looking forward to St. John's competing at the Garden, because there is no other venue like it.  When St. John's ascends to being one of the top teams in the country again, NYC and the Garden will rock.  Believe me, there's  nothing like it.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

The Big East - 11 Teams in the NCAA's?

Joe Lunardi of ESPN has 11 Big East Teams in the NCAA Tournament Field as of today.  I love the Big East, but I have to think that 11 is a little optimistic.  As it stands now, Pitt, Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame are locks.  Cincinnati and West Virginia are probables, but either could collapse.  There are others with serious problems to overcome.

So far, St. John's can't hit free throws at home to put away opponents and, unfortunately for them, they still have to play Georgetown, Duke, Pitt, Villanova, Marquette, and UCONN.  Oh yeah, UCLA at Pauley and at Cincinnati (who just beat St. John's at the LOU).  They won't be in the field of 64 in all likelihood.  Rutgers has beaten nobody worth mentioning, and still has Villanova, Pitt, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville and Cincinnati on their schedule.  They will likely fold under the competition as well.  Marquette has a similar gauntlet to run, although they beat Notre Dame earlier in the year.  It's likely that 2 of these 3 teams, St. John's, Rutgers, and Marquette, will drop off because of unusually tough schedules from here forward. 

I think 9 teams from the Big East is assured, even money on 10 to get in, and 11 is unlikely.  The teams towards the bottom-middle of the pack will beat on each other and succumb to the powerhouses in the league. 

This brings up another interesting point.  The Big East, if the Committee spreads the powerhouse teams out, has a better chance of advancing 4 teams to the Final Four than any other conference in history, because Pitt, Syracuse, Villanova, UCONN, and Notre Dame can play with anybody.  Louisville has a coach who tends to surprise people in March and Georgetown (who currently sits 11th in this freakazoid League) is a capable club as well.

Friday, January 21, 2011

Ohio State

I have had the opportunity to watch Ohio State since they have ascended to Number One in the polls and I am impressed.  Their strengths are many while their weaknesses are few.  However, let me state now that Kansas deserves to be Number One at this point, and if this weekend goes the way I believe it will, Kansas will take the top spot.

The Buckeyes are an exceptional shooting team.  Overall, they are shooting 50% from the field and 40% from behind the arc.  Their top 3 scorers, Sullinger, Buford, and Lighty (who seems like he's been around for 10 years), take about half of their shots.  Sullinger, who makes his living in the paint, shoots 58% from the field, while Buford hits 46% of his shots (including 41% of his treys).  Lighty hits 48% of his shots and 46% of his threes.  They have a 3 point specialist in John Diebler who takes far more 3's than anyone else on this team and hits 47% of them.  I saw him hit 3 in a row last week...all were contested and none hit the rim.  They put up 79 points per game (72 in Big Ten games).  In a nutshell,  they are typical of Thad Matta's teams...balanced and smart in terms of shot selection.  They also distribute the basketball, averaging over 17 assists per game as a team while their leader in assists averages less than 5 per game.  Their players are unselfish, making the extra pass to get better shots.

Defensively, they are more than solid.  They have given up over 70 points one time this year to a Florida team like likes to push the ball.  Ohio State beat them by 18, and the Buckeyes were on cruise control during the latter part of that game.  Overall, their opponents shoot 41% from the field and 32% from beyond the arc.  They only give up 56 points per game, and in Big Ten play so far they have allowed a little under 63 points per game.  Basically, you have to work hard to score against them.  Making things more difficult, the Buckeyes cause 18 turnovers per game.

The only two weakness as far as I can see is that they are not very deep and they don't dominate the backboards.  Their rotation consists of 8 players, and all of their starters average over 30 minutes per game. Their 2 main bench players average over 17 minutes and the third averages 10.  They may succumb to fatigue in March because by then they will have gone through a physical Big Ten schedule and Tournament.  The fact that they have only had 4 players foul out all year (each just 1 time) is a double-edged sword.  Their best players don't have to take a seat because of foul trouble, but they are not extending their bench and giving their best players rest. In Big Ten games they are even with their opponents in rebounds.  While ideally you want a clear rebounding advantage, this hasn't been an exploitable weakness yet because Ohio State shoots so well and causes 7 more turnovers per game than they commit. 

I like the way this team competes and their balance.  You can shut down Sullinger or Buford and still get torched by Lighty or Diebler.  On the other end, you have to take care of the basketball and work to get good shots.  However, they still have the tough part of their schedule left to play: Illinois twice, Wisconsin twice, Purdue, and Michigan State.  After running that gauntlet, I could see them being a little tired in the NCAA tournament against a physical team from, say, the Big East and getting bumped off in the Round of Sixteen if they're not careful.  

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

First Time In A While

It took Steve Lavin about five minutes to change the mood for all St. John's fans from frustrated to hopeful.  After 2 months, the Red Storm are playing a game that means a lot for both teams on the floor.  Syracuse has an undefeated record on the line tomorrow night, while St. John's needs wins over ranked teams to make a case for their first NCAA Tournament bid in what seems like decades.  The Big East is so brutal this year...every win counts because there are eight or nine teams in the league that look as though they belong in the field of 64 (oh, I mean 68).

I grew up in Brooklyn during the 1980's when the Big East was as talented as it is today.  Of course, St. John's was at the top of the Big East in the 80's as opposed to the past few years when they have been also rans.  Tomorrow's game at the Garden represents an opportunity to step onto one of basketball's hallowed halls and show the country that St. John's basketball is officially back.  Given the recruits Lavin has coming in next year, the future looks bright for the program, but St. John's fans have been waiting for so long to go crazy in the Garden that the boost to the program if the Red Storm can win tomorrow would be enormous.

Of course, Boeheim's team will be prepared and they are tough.  I am as excited about a St. John's game as I have been since Mike Jarvis was coach.  It's a long time coming.

Saturday, January 8, 2011

Duke Without Irving

The Blue Devils continue to coast, and with the ACC being weak this year, the absence of Kyrie Irving will not be a major problem for them.  My guess is that they will not bring Irving back until he is 100%, and by the time that happens they may as well shut him down for the year.  He would disrupt team chemistry on a team that lives and dies with team chemistry.

The Blue Devils will plan their offensive and defensive strategies without Irving in the mix.  I don't think it will affect their ability to win the ACC and gain a number 1 seed in March.  If there is a team out there that can overcome the loss of a star, it's Duke.  That program is a machine, and we'll see it again this year.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Continue Watching BYU

Fredette went off for 39 last night, and he was complemented by Emery's 22 and Davie's 15.  They played UNLV even on the boards and held the Rebels to 40% shooting.  UNLV was averaging 49% from the field before this game, and BYU was able to disrupt their offense all night.

I reiterate, watch BYU...they have the best scorer (and maybe the best player...please watch him for one game and you'll see) in the country.  Now it seems that they have at least 2 other players who can step up.  THIS TEAM IS POTENTIALLY LETHAL.