Welcome to 2011-2012

Thad Matta had his team prepared with his fake high post, back screen, double low post offense.  Think Princeton offense with the addition of talented low post players.  Duke’s forwards had to move across the lane at least twice to guard the Ohio St players and, in doing so, allowed lay-ups.  If Ohio St were to play UNC running the same offensive sets, they would score at least 90 points.  However, Kendall Marshall would have a field day in transition and in UNC’s half court sets.  UNC would beat Ohio State if they hit 72% of their free throws. 

I loved Doc Rivers as a player, but his son is not a point guard yet.  Duke was a little slow in their half court defense , and never looked comfortable.  Basically, Thad Matta prepared his team well.  They dribble penetrated and kicked to an open cutter or dished to a 3 point shooter all night.  Obviously, Duke rarely allows their opponents to shoot 60% from the field and 57% from the 3 point stripe.  When you add the fact that all 5 Ohio St starters had at least 5 rebounds (and that the Buckeyes out-rebounded Duke by 9), this was an unusual loss for Duke.  However,  I think Coach K tried to teach his team humility after the 10 minute mark in the second half by not pressing or truly attempting to get back in the game.  He will use this loss as an example of what Duke basketball ain't for the rest of this year.  Based on what I saw last night, I would not be surprised if Duke played a goodly amount of zone (say, 40%) for the rest of the season.

 

 

Duke and UNC will figure out how to minimize their weaknesses on defense by mid-January.  That’s why they’re Duke and Carolina.  

You heard it here first.  If I were a betting man I would expect Notre Dame could cover a 10 point spread at Gonzaga.  If nothing else, Gonzaga is a Jesuit institution with a "humanistic" spin to it.  Having been educated by Jesuits, I know that the concepts of Humanism and the Jesuit philosophy were at bloody odds for a good portion of European history.  Also, Gonzaga seeks their "free intellectual inquery" by focusing "on Western Culture." This is silly.

At least Notre Dame is vague about its mission.  Notre Dame as an institution pursues "truth for its own sake."  Moreover, it provides a forum where "the various lines of Catholic thought may intersect" and where a "particular creedal affiliation  (i.e., Jesuit or Franciscan, and obviously, the Augustinians)" is ridiculous.

Notre Dame covers.  Oh yeah, NC State will outright against Indiana.

UCONN Wins the Dog Fight

Butler couldn't buy a bucket last night in what was probably the worst performance in Final Four history.  UCONN's team defense was phenomenal, but Butler missed at least 5 easy shots and 12 good shots.  While UCONN outrebounded Butler by 51 to 40, Butler actually grabbed more offensive rebounds than the Huskies and just couldn't convert.  Other than just having a bad night, I think there is one player who affected Butler's shooting more than any other...Alex Oriachi.  He's my MVP of the game.

Oriachi's 4 blocks came on sure lay-ups or chip shots.  His presence altered many others - there is no doubt that Butler's big men were rushing shots because Oriachi and Roscoe Smith had them intimidated.  On the glass, Oriachi grabbed 11 boards and chipped in 11 points on 5 for 6 shooting.  He only played 25 minutes, and he made them all count.  Walker was deserving of the Final Four MOP and Lamb deserved consideration as MVP last night, but I am giving Oriachi the nod because this was a defensive game and he played the best defense.  Shelvin Mack did not have a point inside the 3 point line.  Howard got nothing in the paint either.  The put backs that he usually gets weren't there; the room and confidence to operate in the post weren't there. 

Finally, this wasn't discussed by the press, but Butler's bench was actually worse than their starters.  They were 0 for 6 from the floor and had only 6 rebounds.  UCONN's bench had 12 points and 17 rebounds.  As I predicted yesterday, UCONN's rebounding combined with the fact that the refs did not call this game tight led to their victory.  If Butler had gotten a few calls inside, allowing them to get to the line a few more times, they may have had a chance.  When the refs let them play, it always favor the bigger team. 

Yesterday's Wars

Both games were hotly contested yesterday, and they both went according to form.  In the first game, Butler did a good job of getting the ball into the post and getting to the free throw line.  This allowed them to stay even with VCU in the first half despite not shooting well from the floor.  Free throws give you 3 things:  easy points (assuming your team can shoot free throws), tempo control, and fouls against your opponent.  VCU wanted to push the pace and take advantage of superior quickness, but when the clock stopped every minute or 2, it became tough for them to dictate pace.  They also had to adjust defenses to protect Skeen.  Butler took a lead into the locker room at the half because they rebounded well and converted free throws.

At the beginning of the 2nd half, VCU did a great job of getting the ball to Jamie Skeen to grab the lead, but Shelvin Mack was able to score 10 straight points to give Butler a working cushion that they rode until VCU had to start fouling - at that point, the game was over.  I thought Matt Howard's put back to put Butler up six with about a minute left was the dagger.  VCU deserves credit...they played hard the whole game.  Even though they had a deeper bench than Butler, pressing takes a lot of energy.  I thought VCU left it all out on the court.  Shaka Smart will have a nice fat deal very soon, because a lot of schools still need coaches.  However, I thought it was a little odd that one of Smart's assistants was doing all the talking during the "live look-in" at halftime.  It appeared as though the AC was telling Smart what to tell the players when they went back into the locker room.  Smart looked like Ronald Reagan.  (RIMSHOT!)

The CBS / TNT commentators (Barkley, Kenny Smith, Greg Gumbel, Seth Davis, and Greg Anthony) were stepping all over each others' toes.  There are too many people clogging up that stage to make any sense out of their analyses.  Overall, I think Greg Anthony is provided the best analyses of all the broadcasters.  His comment that :Butler "can play well, without playing well" may not have been stated with the most eloquence, but it was 100% accurate.  (Converting free throws isn't sexy, but it's effective.)  Barkley thought VCU would wear Butler down in the 2nd half (which definitely did not happen).  Seth Davis said Butler would win because of their coaching.  You gotta give us more than that, Seth.  You can say that about any team in any game.  The broadcasters' banter was approaching dialogue appropriate in a pub setting...not national TV. 

The second game was ugly in a lot of ways, but still fun to watch.  Calipari definitely messed up in the last minute by not fouling immediately after UCONN got the ball with about 45 seconds to play, but Kentucky got very lucky in getting the turnover with 18 seconds left.  Also, Kentucky was clueless on their last possession.  Granted, Kemba Walker played great defense in forcing Knight to give up the ball, but the Kentucky players were not prepared.  I would have run some sort of hand-off / ball screen play to get one of their guards into the middle and driven the ball much sooner.  Taking a contested 3 is not the result you want, especially since they had time when they took possession.

While Calipari deserves credit for getting this team into the Final Four, yesterday's game was an example of the risk of recruiting players who are likely to be "one and done."  Even the most talented freshman make freshman mistakes.  Kentucky missed free throws, sloppily turned the ball over, and took a lot of bad shots.  On the flip side, you need the horses to win, and it is commendable that Calipari seems to be able to get young players to improve over the course of a season.  He did the exact same thing at Memphis a few years ago and just missed the Final Four last year.  Of Kentucky's 3 super freshman, I think Lamb and Knight should return for one more year.  Terrence Jones has nothing further to prove at the college level.  His 15 rebounds yesterday were proof that he is a man among boys in college.  (Kentucky could be a very tough team next if they can keep Knight and Lamb around.  Their recruiting class is stellar, with 4 McDonald's All-Americans.) 

Other than the mental errors, Kentucky was not deep enough to play in such a physical game.  They were worn out, especially since the clock was running so much late in the second half.  The under 8 minute official time out didn't come until under 4 minutes.  It seemed like all of their shots fell short later in the game.  Props to UCONN for making Kentucky work all game on both ends of the floor.  It is nearly impossible to play only 7 in a game like that and have anything in the tank left in the waning moments. 

Calhoun and his staff deserve credit for putting Kemba Walker in more of a distributor role in the 1st half and running more sets for him in the second half. He got his 18 points, but he dished out a bunch of assists, grabbed 6 rebounds and played phenomenal defense.  Walker made two of the best defensive plays I've seen all season when he stripped Knight leading to a lay up and when he stopped a breakaway by outrunning the offensive player and getting a block to prevent a sure dunk.  He's a winner, and represents the best of New York City basketball...toughness, dedication, and smarts.  I absolutely love the guy.

Outside of Walker, the UCONN big men came up with some big blocks in the game and UCONN as a whole stepped up their rebounding in the 2nd half.  They had 4 players with at least 6 rebounds.  Their scoring was balanced as well, with their big men stepping up and getting their dunks off of great interior passing.  I think they deserve a lot of credit for forcing Kentucky into taking a lot of bad shots.  Of course, Kentucky's youth contributed to it, but UCONN ultimately dictated the game through team defense.  They also ran some great offensive sets against Kentucky's zone.  It was a well deserved win.

BTW, I have a beef with Kentucky...I think they played a dirty game in the 2nd half.  Basketball is obviously physical, but I saw a couple of Kentucky players take cheap shots, including a groin shot in front of the camera.  It reminded me of Georgetown in the 80's.  Of course, UCONN may have disguised similar rough play more effectively...Calhoun's teams have been known to be thuggish on occasion.

Tomorrow, UCONN will do their best to get Howard into foul trouble early.  If they can limit Howard, then it will be that much easier to limit Mack's offensive output.  Butler will fan Kemba Walker and try to provide "flash" help when he is dribbling to at least make him alter his driving angles.  This game could be decided by the refs.  If they decide to call the game tight, then it will work in Butler's favor.  If the high ball screens Butler runs turn into UCONN fouls as opposed to UCONN redirecting the ball handler, then UCONN may not be able to dictate what Butler is able to do on offense.  If Mack is allowed to dribble drive, he will have a huge night.

Walker will have to earn his points, so his ability to dish to his bigs when he is stymied will be crucial.  They need to finish, and I am pretty sure they will get their share of dunks.  Obviously, UCONN is more athletic, but Butler is more than adept at neutralizing teams who possess an athletic advantage over them.  This game will hinge on rebounding .  Why?  I don't see either team getting more than a dozen turnovers.  I don't see either team shooting much better than the other.  And I certainly don't see one team getting out-coached.  That leaves rebounding.  I'll take UCONN by 4. 

Final Four Thoughts

Now that we have the Final Four set, let's go back to my post of 2/16.  I had UCONN as a team that could easily make the Final Four and that's it!  I named 16 teams and only one made it.  Butler didn't come out of nowhere, nor did Kentucky.  VCU was a shock.  The parity in college basketball is amazing.

It's actually disappointing that the 2 "Cinderellas" have to face off against each other in the semi-finals.  The battle between VCU and Butler for a National Championship would have been, well, a fairy tale.  That said, the Match-ups in the Final Four are nothing short of delightful.

UCONN is riding a formula everyone has seen from them before.  Their two championship teams, in 1999 and 2004, featured high scoring guards, Rip Hamilton in 1999 and Ben Gordon in 2004.  They also featured great shot blocking forwards.  Jim Calhoun's teams feature guards that can shoot and go the the hole, and he teaches his big men to go to the glass as if a shot is a pass off the rim.  It works for UCONN.  This year's team is no different...Walker is a money guard, and UCONN sports 3 players that combine for over 4 blocks a game on the defensive end and, between the same 3 big men, over 5 dunks a game.

Kentucky has so much young talent.  Knight, Lamb, and Jones have hit their stride as freshman.  It is obvious that Calipari can weather a season with freshman and prepare them for post-season play.  This isn't the first time he's done it and, as a friend of mine pointed out astutely in his blog before the Tournament (blogspot.andaplayertobenamedlater.com), Kentucky felt shunned by the Committee in receiving a 4 seed.  I love the UCONN match-up.  It will be a war.  UCONN will win by 7.

Butler going up against VCU is every bit as intriguing.  VCU is averaging over 10 3's a game in the Tournament, so you have to wonder how they will hold up if Butler can limit their 3's.  Of course, fanning your defense out to contest treys allows for back-door cuts and dribble penetration, and VCU has great team quickness.  I believe Butler will try and establish their big men early in the game.  This will allow them to control the tempo of the game.  Since Butler is so well coached and was in this position just last year, I think they will keep this game in the high 60's / low 70's and win by 5. 

NC State Coaching Search

Finally, NC State put Sidney Lowe out of his misery.  Lowe is clearly a likable guy, and has shown himself to be a good recruiter.  However, he had more than enough time to build a winner, and just couldn't get the Pack over the hump into the upper echelon of the ACC.  I noticed a few things that Lowe's teams failed to do throughout his tenure, and these problems can be prevented with proper coaching. 

1. Offensive flow / continuity.  NC State was never very good at running an effective half court offense under Lowe.  The Pack were able at times to run the right sets to get favorable match-ups (like an NBA team), but the offense was never smooth and consistent.  I listened to people give excuses for the Pack's inability to execute in this area over the past few years, such as State not having a top tier point guard or the fact that a couple of key players left early, but there is no excuse for sloppy half court execution.  There are a lot of programs that run an effective half-court offense without a top tier point guard.  There are also plenty of schools that have key players leaving early and still have a system in place that players grasp and execute.

2. Defensive effort.  I noticed this more this year than in prior years, but State was awful at getting back in transition.  It was incredibly frustrating to watch team after team beat State down the court and get a lay up or a dunk.  Even teams who are not considered running teams, like Clemson and Florida State, were getting easy baskets on State in transition.  Seriously, here's a great way to get blown out by UNC or Duke...don't get back on defense.  Great idea making things easy on teams that are talented and well coached.  I saw it time and time again.

State's half court defense relied on funneling opponents to a shot blocker, rather than shutting down 3 point shooters.  Granted, State was able to make some spectacular blocks at times because of their athletic ability, but they were one of the worst defensive teams in the ACC over Lowe's tenure.  Opponents that made the extra pass against State were rewarded for the most part.

There were times when Lowe looked like he was turning the corner and moving in the right direction.  Then it seemed like State would lose 5 games in a row and be back to square one.  I think Lowe has potential as an assistant coach / recruiter for a top program like Kentucky or UCLA.  I think players like and understand him.  However, he has never been successful as a head coach at any level.

What State needs is a system.  There are plenty of systems and coaching styles out there.  Roy Williams, Coach-K, and Rick Pitino all have systems.  They adjust their systems to best make their teams' talents most effective.  I think Sendek was able to do it with NC State.  He went from a Pitino style motion offense to e modified Princeton offense.  Sendek's teams ALWAYS played tough defense.  State needs a dedicated coach with a plan that can be modified because, let's face it, State doesn't always get the recruits they want.

As for a new coach, State fans need to be realistic.  Sean Miller is not going to leave Arizona to coach State.  If they made him AD and Head Coach, he still wouldn't do it.  They can't afford enough money to make him consider it, as Arizona is one of the elite programs in the country.  It should be noted that Miller was an assistant under Sendek, so he had first-hand knowledge of how unreasonable State fans can be.  They were unfair to Sendek, because of his "lack of personality."  Five NCAA Tournaments in a row couldn't satisfy State fans, so Sendek headed elsewhere.  I can guarantee Miller is acutely aware of it, so forget Miller.

Chris Mooney would be a good fit, as he has made Richmond a very good team.  Before that, he even made Air Force competitive.  As a Princeton graduate, he has a great basketball pedigree.  I would tap him on the shoulder and see if he is interested.  Buzz Williams would be another interesting choice.  He is a character and has led Marquette to 3 straight NCAA berths.  His teams are tough as nails, which I think State needs.  When you can't out recruit UNC and Duke, you have to out tough them.

We'll see what the selection committee can come up with, but I wouldn't count on a high profile coach.  It wasn't worth it for Lavin and Calipari a few years ago, and I doubt any household names are going to think of the State job any differently this time around.

The First Weekend

As predicted, I got creamed on my bracket.  Louisville was one of my Final Four teams.  I had Pitt winning it all.  It's funny, because I had the VCU/USC winner into the Sweet Sixteen, but I assumed USC would beat VCU, who I didn't think belonged in the Tournament.  The closest I came to a good call was saying Florida State could give Notre Dame problems.  Of course, I picked Notre Dame to advance.  So I'm left with 8 out of 16.  President Obama is beating me.  Sad.

I'm really interested in the Wisconsin v Butler game.  Both teams are very well coached, and they can both shoot from deep.  Florida State v VCU is intriguing as well.  I was impressed at how VCU blew Purdue's door's off, putting up over 50 in the 2nd half.  This week will be different for the Rams, though.  VCU will not get any easy transition hoops against Florida State, so they need to get creative if they expect to score.  I don't expect Florida State to shoot as well as they did against Notre Dame, so I expect VCU will be able to keep it close. 

Ohio State looks unbeatable.  The only thing that can keep them from the Final Four is UNC.  That has the makings of a great game if they both win in the next round.  

On the other side of the bracket, Kansas' athletic ability came through against Illinois.  As is typical of the Jayhawks, they shot over 50% in the game.  Bill Self's team understands when to push the ball and when to back off and run their half court sets.  Their shot selection is phenomenal.

My Bracket

Here it is.  Unlike most, I publish one and one only.  There have been years where I have hit all 4 Final Four teams (2001 and 2004 were the last two times, so I feel I'm due) and years where I have hit only 1 of 4.  Last year I correctly predicted 2 Final Four participants - Michigan State and Duke with Duke winning it all. Also, I predicted Kansas State and Butler into the Elite Eight.  I had Kansas State beating Butler, and luckily won my pool by 2 points.  I never liked the idea of filling out multiple brackets and pulling out the best one after the first weekend.  "Look, everybody...I got 30 out of 32!"  That's weak.  Of course, I have other brackets to try and win online contests, but I'm putting this one out there.

I took a lot of risks, but I still put 3 number 1's in the Final Four.  I am sure I will get burned, but this year was very difficult.  Watch Wofford - they are balanced and experienced.  I wanted to put them into the Sweet Sixteen, but chickened out.  Gonzaga can easily win 2 games as well.  In that part of my bracket, I went with the Lavin factor.  He has made a habit of winning the first weekend. I also chickened out on LIU, because I think Carolina is too talented.  The LIU Blackbirds are for real, though.  They are unusually talented for an NEC team.  It's too bad they're an NEC team, because that conference never gets a higher seed than 14.

I love the way Louisville and Washington are playing and went with my gut on Temple.  The Owls looked fatigued to me last week, I feel like they can play well after getting some rest.  One more team to watch is Florida State.  They may give Notre Dame big problems provided the Noles can find ways to score in their first game and advance.

Let the Madness begin. By the way, a Buffalo Wild Wings opened up on Route 22 here in New Jersey.  If you haven't tried it, I highly recommend watching the games and chowing on wings there.  Of course, given my girth, you may want to discard my dining advice.  A few more pounds and I'll have my own satellites.

Hats Off To The Committee

The Committee had a lot of pressure on it this year, primarily because there was so much parity across the country.  There were a lot of teams that were so similar in terms of their body of work that seeding up and down the Tournament was extremely difficult.  Usually, there is some controversy as to who gets a number 1 seed versus a number 2 or the last couple of teams to get in (and this year was no different), but it was unusually difficult to seed the bids from 5 and lower.  

Duke received a number 1, but it doesn't help their chances.  They were shipped out West, when they would have been far better off with a 2 seed closer to home.  Yes, I know they're playing in Charlotte the first weekend, but they're going to play Hampton.  They don't need a home crowd during the first weekend.  Duke is the defending National Champion and just won their conference tournament with ease against a top 10 team.  Half their alumni are from Jersey.  The Committee should have thrown them a bone and seeded them in the East, even if it meant a 2 seed.   Duke also has a potentially tough second game with Tennessee who, if they show up, can be dangerous.  Then Texas awaits Duke in all likelihood.  Furthermore, the Committee is handing San Diego State a virtual home game against Duke in Anaheim if they both advance to the regional final.  The Devils won't have it easy.  Obviously, Coack-K and the Blue Devils don't care - they will go about their business as always.

I thought Colorado and St. Mary's should have been given bids.  The West Coast Conference is not a 1 bid league anymore.  St. Mary's was about as good as Gonzaga, and Gonzaga definitely belonged in the field.  Colorado beat Kansas State 3 times and Mizzou once, finishing .500 in the Big 12.  Clemson also lost to UVA and NC State.  If Clemson had beaten Carolina at least once in 3 tries, I could have accepted the selection.   Their non-conference schedule was awful except for South Carolina, Michigan, and Old Dominion, and they lost all those games.

UAB beat nobody and lost to a dismal Arizona State team.  GW beat UAB by 33.  Conference USA was truly a 1 bid league this year.  Memphis would have been enough.  I also question giving VCU a bid.  I don't see the Colonial as a 3 bid league, especially since VCU lost to Georgia State, Northeastern, and USF (who was the only bad team in the Big East). 

I didn't understand the inclusion of Georgia, either.  They beat Kentucky a few months ago and later beat Tennessee, but have no other quality wins.  The SEC was down this year, but 5 bids was too much.  I would have kept Georgia home.

The reality is that the Committee always gets criticized, no matter who they select.  I think the Committee did a great job in a year where there are teams with 12 or 13 losses who can beat 1 seeds.  This year's Tournament is going to be extremely entertaining.

Championship Week Part 2 and Another Digression

I still think Pitt should get a number 1 seed at this point.  Kemba Walker, who was beaten out by Hansborough for Big East Player of the Year honors, may have had a little extra motivation today.  Pitt switched on the pick and roll, and Walker made Pitt's big man look silly in executing a perfect step-back.   How can Pitt be bumped to a number 2 seed?  It's all up to Duke and Notre Dame.  If those 2 teams win their conference tourneys, they deserve number 1 seeds in my opinion.  Yes, I know the ACC is sub-par, but Carolina and Florida State are no slouches and Maryland, who plays Duke tomorrow, is desperate.  Va Tech is playing well, too.  Duke will not have a cake walk.  I could see the committee considering ND and Pitt as number 1's if Duke loses to MD, but Coach K and Duke's reputation will make the Committee think twice about not giving the ACC a 1 seed.  However, even if Duke and ND win out, it may not be a bad thing for Pitt to get a number 2 seed as it may allow them to stay back East, which would be a good thing for them. They're tough, but they're a truly regional team.  Going out West would be a tough road.

UNC winning the ACC should make an interesting decision for the Commitee.  No team with 6 losses should be a shoo-in for a 1 seed, but UNC has lost to the following teams: Minnesota, Texas, Vandy, Illinois, and Ga Tech (Jan 16th) with Larry Drew II.  After that loss, they lost to Duke in Cameron...and that's it.  They haven't lost in over a month.  They have no bad losses except for Ga Tech, and the Heels started to ease Larry Drew II from their rotation since then (and now he's gone).  If they win the ACC Tournament (and beat Duke in the process), they have a case to make for a number 1 seed.  However, the fact that St John's smoked Duke earlier this year, and St John's was the 5 seed in the Big East Tournament, should say something as to the relative strengths of the Big East v the ACC. 

Personally, I think UNC does less with their talent than any other team in the country.  They have more McDonald's All Americans (by double) than any other program in the NCAA since the McDonald's All American game was created in the 70's.  Given their ability to recruit, they should be at least twice as successful as Duke.  Yet they aren't. 

I have to give Duke credit over UNC and and every other program in the country.  Duke HAS NEVER BEEN ACCUSED OF VIOLATING RECRUITMENT RULES.  The Duke program should be the model for all other programs in Division I.  Yes, I know that Duke is a pocket IVY League School.  Yes I know Duke's endowment is around $5 BILLION.  Here's the point.  Any player that can survive in Duke's basketball program will be able to do well in society given what they were able to do under Coach-K.  Isn't that the point?  I know that most basketball players at Duke major in Sociology.  However, majoring in Sociology at Duke and getting your degree when you are a member of their men's basketball team is amazing.  As for the players who have chosen to enter the NBA draft...ask them if Coach-K discouraged them from going into the NBA draft.  Kyrie Irving is going number 1 in all likelihood, and Coach-K has been nothing but supportive.

BTW...it boggles my mind that UCONN was the 9 seed in the Big East.  They are very good, and are led by a Hall of Fame coach.  The Big East is strong.

Elsewhere in the Big East, I believe St. John's has earned a 5 seed with their loss to Syracuse today.  They are still the story of the year in my opinion.  DJ Kennedy is out for the year, so that hurts the Red Storm's chances in that he is such a versatile player.  Nobody, including myself, thought SJU would be in this position.  The Orange can earn a 2 seed if they win the Big East Tourney, but a 3 is assured for them.  UCONN can creep into a 3 seed potentially if they can beat Syracuse.  Georgetown has 6 seed written all over them.  West Va and Cincy are no better than 8 or 9's as far as I'm concerned.  Huggy Bear's reputation and UWV's Final Four appearance last year may get them as high as a 6 seed, however.

Louisville continues to impress me despite a few hiccups during the year.  They are showing an inside, kick to the outside shooter game, pressure defense, and transition game that will make them a tough out.  In addition, their guards go to the rack hard and effectively.  I think they'd be a nightmare 3 or 4 seed if they can make it to the Sweet Sixteen.  I can see them giving an Ohio State or Kansas trouble because Louisville strips the ball from big men so well and force opponents to guard the 3 point line and the paint.  If I'm Carolina or Duke, I don't want to see them.  At the end of the day, unless you have a clear talent advantage and the right game plan, Rick Pitino's teams don't bow down.  They force you to play well to beat them.  The Cardinals have a nice resume...they beat Butler, St John's, Nova, Syracuse, West Va (once), UCONN, and Pitt.  They also smoked Marquette tonight.

Michigan State deserves a bid, even if they lose to Purdue.  Outside of Coach-K, Tom Izzo deserves more leeway than any other coach in the country.  State played a very tough road prior to their conference schedule, and the Big Ten was tough.  The Committee should just let them in. 

Here's my conference breakdown as it stands today:

Big East - 11 teams - I thought this was a long shot, but .500 in the Big East - punch your ticket: Pitt, ND, Syracuse, UCONN, St John's, Louisville, West Va, Villavova, Cincy, Marquette, Georgetown.
Big 10 - 6 teams - Penn State, no way, no how. Ohio St, Purdue, Wisconsin, Mich St, Mich, Illinois
Big 12 - 5 teams - Colorado won a big game, but this conference was top heavy.  Kansas, Texas, K-State, A&M, Mizzou
SEC - 4 teams - the winner of Georgia and Alabama punches their ticket.  This ain't football...sorry Tennessee. Bids: Florida, Vandy, Kentucky, winner of UGA v Alabama
Mountain West - 4 teams - UNM should get in.  This conference was better than the SEC and equal to the PAC-10.  Bids: BYU, SDSU, UNLV, UNM
PAC-10 -  4 teams - USC deserves it.  They beat Texas, Tennessee, UCLA, and Arizona. Bids: Arizona, UCLA, USC, Washington.
Atlantic-10 - 4 teams* - Duquesne should get a bid if they win tomorrow.  This league is better than the SEC.  Temple, Xavier, Richmond...TBD, Duquesne
ACC - 3 teams*  - the winner of the BC v Clemson means little, unless the winner beats Fla St. This was not your daddy's ACC.  Duke, UNC, Fla St., BC or Clemson TBD
West Coast - 2 teams - St. Mary's and Gonzaga are more than qualified
Colonial -  2 teams - GM and ODU can be sleepers in the Tourney

Watch Long Island University, they have a lot of talent.  Once the seedings come out, I will give my upset watch.

Championship Week Part 1

Villanova was bounced today by the USF Bulls, but I seriously doubt that it will influence Villanova's inclusion into the NCAA Tourney.  In fact, it doesn't affect Nova at all.  Come selection Sunday, they will be an 10 seed instead of a 6 seed, which is the best they could have hoped for even if they had won tonight.  Okay, so they have to put on their blue uniforms for the first round or maybe play that extra game in Dayton.  No big deal.  Granted, they have to buckle down and play defense.  USF should not have been allowed to "Bull" back in 2nd half.  Inexcusable.

Now that I look at the Big East, it looks like it will dominate the 4 and 5 seeds in the brackets.  Louisville, Syracuse, Georgetown, St. John's, UCONN, and West Virginia all fall into the area.  Of course, the Committee will endeavor to spread the teams out a little.  However, if they make a couple of teams 6 or 7 seeds and a couple 3 seeds, it's going to be hard to avoid several Big East Teams clashing in the 2nd round.  Frankly, I don't think the Committee should be overly worried about avoiding Big East match-ups in the first weekend.  The Big East will wind up being a victim of its unprecedented success in all likelihood unless the Committee does some major juggling.  It's a good problem for the Big East to have in a way.

Number 1 Seeds

Interesting week, huh?

I don't like to digress from sports, but what the heck is wrong with BYU?  Yes, yes, yes, I know they have an honor code, but punishing a college player for having pre-marital sex?  I've watched a few episodes of "Big Love" and those people commit more acts of perversity in a day than most people do in a lifetime.  But seriously, a culture with a tradition of polygamy worried about college athletes having sex and having the "audacity" to lie about it?  Maybe it's none of anyone's business what you do as a consensual adult.  However, it is a Mormon school.  Davies should have been smart and married his girlfriend and 7 other women (on the sly, as polygamy is illegal...wink).  What was he thinking?  I feel for the kid.

It's obviously a blow for BYU to lose a starter, especially because they're not a particularly deep team even with Davies in the rotation.  The Cougars aren't rebounding animals, and they just lost their top rebounder.  What do you say as their coach?  How about, "Okay, Jimmer...I'm gonna need you to drop an additional 15 points per game and shoot better while you do it, because we can't out rebound a high school team now."
It is safe to say that BYU will not receive a number 1 seed after having lost this week (duh).  It's a shame for the program, because not many people would have complained if they had not lost this week, ran that conference tourney, and received a number 1 seed. 

Ohio State is an obvious lock for the number 1 seed even if they lose in the Big 10 Tourney.  They crushed Wisconsin today.  Kansas is a lock at this point, too.  Pitt and Duke are right there, because other teams that could have made a case (i.e., Texas and BYU) played themselves out of it.  In short, the conference tourneys could vault a couple of teams.  One thing that interests me is UNC.  If they win the ACC Tourney and beat Duke again in the process, does that take away a number 1 seed for the ACC?  If I'm Notre Dame, and I win the Big East Tourney over Pitt and the other teams in that gauntlet league, and UNC wins the ACC, I would be pissed if I didn't get the 4th number 1 seed, especially since Catholics aren't polygamists anymore.  (Rimshot!)

I love parity.  It will kill my bracket in all likelihood, but I will not complain.

Bracket-Nonsensology

Holy cow...Andy Katz thinks that BYU's loss of their starting center will influence their seeding for the NCAA Tournament!  You think, Andy?

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog/_/name/katz_andy/id/6181784/injuries-play-role-committee-decisions

Great headline to your blog, Andy Katz.  Why don't you state something more obvious? 

Churn, Churn, Churn

Okay, the top ten is on its ear again.  Ohio State jumped over Kansas and took the top spot, while my BYU Cougars skulked up to the number 3 spot.  While I have been singing BYU's praises all year, I did not see them ascending this high in the polls.  However, I did say this team would be lethal come March.  It looks like the scoring balance they are going to need is emerging.  There is a question mark about their defense, but any team that puts up the numbers BYU does offensively may not have to worry about it.  Duke's and UCONN's defenses have been underrated in the past because of pace at which they played.  More trips up and down the floor mean more points for both sides. Hypothetically, if you're up 24 with 6 minutes to play (as Duke and UCONN were often when they had their championship-caliber teams), then it is only sporting to let off the pedal and coast to victory.  I'm not suggesting that BYU is in the league of either Duke's or UCONN's championship teams...I'm just suggesting that defensive intensity is not required when you blow a game open as BYU has done quite often this year.

Look at the Red Storm...they are now ranked 15th in the country!  Holy smokes.  They've managed to knock off most of the top teams in the Big East.  In the last month alone, St. John's has beaten Duke, UCONN, Pitt and Villanova.  They've managed to split with Georgetown and Notre Dame as well.  As amazing as it seems, they could be a favorite to win the Big East Tournament with the home court advantage.  If they can manage to hold on to a bye, look out for them.  BTW...it is unprecedented for a conference to have 8 teams in the top 20 at this point in the year, but the Big East has managed it.  If they get 11 teams in the Tournment, it will be virtually impossible for the Big East to avoid head-to-head play on the first weekend if they all win their first games.  This is the price of success.

As for the ESPN NCAA projections, they have slid another A-10 team in there to make 3 teams from the league, but I still think they are over-valuing the SEC and Big-12.  Georgia and Baylor do not belong at this point.  Come to think of it, neither does Penn State at 15-12, although I think the Big 10 is one of the top 3 conferences in college hoops this year.  Memphis deserves a bid over Penn State unless the Lions beat Ohio State this week. 

Duke at Carolina is going to be a huge game for both teams.  They are playing for seeding in both the ACC Tournament and the NCAA's.  It's a great game to watch regardless of the circumstances, but when there's something on the line, that game is delightful.  Carolina also lost a tough one at Cameron a few weeks ago.  I look forward to watching as always.  Oh yeah, Dean Smith turned 80 today.  He's the 5th best coach in college history.  God bless him.

More Evidence for The Atlantic 10 and A Non Sequitur

I watched Temple play Duke at Cameron tonight, and I think the Owls' performance strengthens my argument for the Atlantic 10 deserving more than 2 teams in the NCAA Tournament.  Duke does not lose to non-conference opponents in Cameron Indoor Stadium.  I firmly believe they could beat any team in the country this year by double digits at Cameron.  Temple lost by 17 tonight, but they aren't used to the hell that is Duke at home.  The Blue Devils have slapped around all their opponents at Cameron this year.  Temple could have won that game if not for a few turnovers.

The last time Duke lost to a non-conference opponent at Cameron was January 26, 2000 against St. John's.  I was at the game, and let's just say I was treated better at Veterans Stadium when I wore my Phil Simms jersey in 1983.  If I had been older than 14 (and more than about 105 pounds) at the Giants - Eagles game that year, I'm sure I would have been tarred and feathered.  However, being chastised by erudites on the way out of  Cameron was not pleasant.  I'm just happy the Duke fans were not able to determine that I was an NC State alum.  I'm sure I would have heard things like, "Do you realize Duke's endowment is 12 times the size of NC State's?"  Of course, I would have fed into their ridicule by responding something like, "No way, jerks, I was on practice squad for 2 weeks and I've been in the locker room with the State guys."


Now for an observation -

In sitting at home tonight switching between Temple v. Duke, DePaul v. St. John's, and The Bucks at Knicks (Melo's 1st game), I realize the true value of High Definition (HD) channels.  I have Verizon Fios, which does not have any of the MSG Channels in HD (not surprisingly, since MSG is owned by the "jackaloons" at Cablevision).  Since St. John's and the Knicks were on MSG channels in standard definition (SD) and the Duke Game was on ESPN2 HD, I could easily compare the quality of SD versus HD.  I have had HD channels for a couple of years, but had no reason to put either the Knicks or St. John's on until this week.  It's bad enough that I'm an NC State alumnus...I saw no reason to completely ruin my basketball season over the past few years by watching dismal NC State teams in addition to the Red Storm and Knicks.

When I attempt to watch hoops in SD, I feel like one of the "In-Valids" from the movie Gattica...myopic.  Now I know how my mother feels, with her "Coke-Bottle" glasses.  Watching a game in HD is like being a hawk...able to distinguish all sorts of minute details from far away.  I can see "Plumlee" on the back of one of the Blue Devils' jersey from the deep camera in HD.  DePaul v. St. John's might as well be Duke at NC State, because I can only distinguish the blue and white uniforms from the white and red jerseys.  Seriously, it's like playing Atari 2600 games today...the graphics appear primitive.

Tournament Field By Conference

ESPN does a phenomenal job predicting the NCAA Tournament field.  At this point there are a couple of conferences that have been given one too many bids and a couple that have been dissed.

Despite what Butler was able to do last year, the Horizon deserves no more than one team.  The conference champion should go...that's it.  Butler, Cleveland State, and Valpo have beaten nobody.  Giving this conference more than one bid is a mistake.

The SEC deserves no more than 5 teams.  Georgia beat Kentucky earlier in the year, but have no other quality wins.  I'm sorry, but 7-5 in the SEC at this point in the year is not impressive.  Tennessee should be the last team in for the SEC, and they deserve no better than an 11 seed.  I don't care that they beat Vandy tonight...this league is sub-par.

The Big 12 is similar to the SEC.  Nebraska and Kansas State have beaten Kansas, but nobody else of consequence.  While the giant killer wins are impressive, most of the Big 12 is awful.  Four teams from this league is fair...five tops.

The Atlantic 10 can make a sound argument for 3 teams in the field.  Temple and Xavier are locks at this point, but Richmond and Duquesne can make a case as well.  The A-10 is just as competitive a league as the SEC this year and is better than the PAC-10.  Furthermore, the A-10 is a half a step behind the ACC.  More will be revealed when we see Temple play Duke this week, but I suspect the Owls will hang tough.

We'll see how things shape up, but the PAC 10, SEC and BIG 12 should not be given the number of bids that ESPN has slotted for them.

Turnover

This should not be surprising, but last week showed how much parity exists in college basketball.  Number 1, Number 2, Number 3, and Number 4 all went down.  Kansas went down to a motivated K-State.  Texas was wide open to take over the top spot until they went to Nebraska.  No help there, as the Huskers showed a lot of grit.  Ohio State and Pitt could have made arguments to take the top spot, but Ohio State was humbled by Purdue in Indiana and Pitt was the latest Big East powerhouse to get whooped by St. John's.

Now we have Duke sliding back into the top spot.  I thought Duke would adjust when they lost Irving, and they have not been disappointing despite the loss to the David that is St. John's at the Garden.  Speaking of which, I wrote that St. John's was out of Tournament contention after they lost to Cincinnati at THE LOU.  I would love to think that Steve Lavin read what I wrote and used it as motivation.  Think about buzzing 4 top ten teams within a few weeks after losing the St. Bonaventure and Fordham earlier in the season.  Unbelievable.  Now they're in the top 25.

The pollsters rewarded SDSU and BYU for holding serve last week, but did not allow them to leapfrog over the top power conference teams.  This is fair - SDSU did a great job in beating a respectable New Mexico team, but it isn't like playing Purdue like Ohio State had to do.  So SDSU is in the top 5 in the ESPN poll, but they have a rightful place behind both Kansas and Ohio State.

This I find amazing - there are 5 teams with number 1 votes in the ESPN/USA Today poll (there are 6 in the AP, but I usually ignore that poll...I find the ESPN poll to be more accurate).  In pre-season and for the first couple of weeks, this is not all that odd because there is always disagreement before the teams get into the meat of their seasons.  However, we're almost in March and there are 5 teams with number 1 votes, and several more teams within 250 points of the top spot.  Talk about parity.  The last time there were 5 teams with number 1 votes this late in the season was 5 years ago. 

I still think Pitt has the best chance to win it all because they rebound, play very solid D, and can shoot from beyond the arc.  However, I have no idea how this year's version of March Madness will turn out. There's just so much talent across the board.  Last year I looked at Duke after the seedings came out and penciled them right in because of the potential match-ups they had.  This year, I doubt it will be all that clear cut.  It's exciting, but I have a feeling that my bracket is going to be brutal this year.

Twelve Teams That Can Easily Make The Final Four

At this point in the season, I believe the following teams are in the best position to make a run to the Final Four.

Kansas - big, athletic forwards, quick guards, super coach.
Texas - a superstar forward and rabbit-like in transition
Duke - they are the champs until someone takes it
Villanova - if healthy, maybe the best overall guard play in the country
Pitt - my favorite to cut down the nets with a healthy Ashton Gibbs
Georgetown - as gritty a team as they come
Notre Dame - great shooters and enough rebounding to make any opponent nervous...also, "sneaky" athletic
UCONN - great shot blocker and a wonderful scorer
Wisconsin - deadly shooters and the ability to win "ugly"
Arizona - underrated...lost to 3 ranked teams and only have 4 total losses.  Sean Miller is a great young coach.
Ohio State - the best big man in the country and great secondary scorers
Syracuse - a mezmerizing zone, mammoth big men and guards who can step up if needed

Honorable Mentions:

North Carolina - Talented and,since Larry Drew II departed, gaining momentum
BYU - they have the best scorer in the country
San Diego State - Steve Fisher has seen it all before, and they are athletic
St. Mary's - They have supplanted Gonzaga as the best team in their league, and we've seen what Gonzaga can do in March

Scramble Up Top

My Top Five:

1. Kansas
2. Pitt
3. Ohio State
4. Duke, 4a. Texas

Now that Ohio State has been beaten, it looks like Kansas will take the top spot.  Of course, Texas has a legitimate argument to make after beating Kansas in Lawrence earlier this year.  The Big 12's top 2 have stepped up, and deserve high spots in the polls.  I believe that Duke deserves as high a ranking as Texas, though.  Why?  Duke has lost 2 games this year, at Florida State (likely the 3rd best team in the ACC behind Duke and UNC) and at St. John's (at the Garden, and St. John's is one of the hottest teams in the country). Duke also beat a red hot UNC team this week.  Also, Texas lost to USC, who has 7 losses in a sub-par PAC-10.

Don't overlook what the Pitt Panthers did today.  Winning at Villanova is no small feat, especially since Pitt was missing their top scorer in Ashton Gibbs.  Down 4 at half, Pitt grinded out a win against competition that made Kansas's and Texas' look like Division II opponents.  Nova is so much better than Iowa State and Baylor that it isn't even fair to compare them.  In addition, Pitt beat Texas earlier in the year.

Of course, Kansas has only lost once this year and Selby was out today.  I think they deserve the top spot, but Pitt deserves the number 2 spot, barely behind Kansas.  Pitt's Big East schedule has been brutal, and while I respect the Big 12, it isn't even close to the Big East.  (Nor is any other conference for that matter.)

Ohio State should, in all fairness, slip no further than 3rd.  The Big Ten is a tough league; it's tougher than the Big 12 and not as brutal as the Big East.  The Buckeyes have done well all year.  However, Pitt's accomplishments have been more significant.

I believe there are no fewer than 12 teams in the country that are, as of this post, legitimately capable of winning it all.  The parity is unprecedented in college basketball history.  I will give you the teams and my logic next Tuesday.

The Red Storm Cometh?

A few weeks ago I wrote St. John's off as being incapable of making the NCAA Tournament.  Since then, SJU has beaten Duke, UCONN and lost to Georgetown and UCLA.  Yes, they beat Rutgers, but they still have work to do.  The loss to Cincinnati was big because SJU could be competing for a spot in the NCAA Tournament with the Bearcats directly at the time the field is selected.  If SJU loses at Cincy, then the Selection Committee will see a season sweep for the Bearcats against SJU and, although Cincy hasn't beaten anybody in conference of note, it may hurt the Red Storm.  If St. John's can beat Cincy and win 3 of their last 6 Big East Games, they will have punched their ticket.

Personally, I would love to see SJU in the dance.

Duke v Carolina Tonight

Although Duke is expected to win by double digits tonight, don't count out Carolina.  They're playing well and they're at home in a match-up for first place in the ACC.  If the Heels can finish strong, they could play their way into a 2 seed despite not having been in the top 25 for most of the season.  Yes, I know that is a stretch, but let's say they beat Duke once in the regular season, reel off another 4 ACC wins, and make it to the finals of the ACC tournament.  They would have a nice resume, especially since they will have improved their play later in the season.

If UNC is going to beat Duke, they have their best shot in Chapel Hill later in the season.  However, I expect that they will be able to keep this game close tonight.  After Larry Drew II decided to transfer, Carolina scored 89 points in beating Florida State by 20.  Florida State is considered to be one of the best defensive teams in the country...they only give up  61.8 points a game.  Kendall Marshall, who was sharing time with Drew and is now in charge of the Heels' offense, had 16 assists.  That is unbelievable for a college game.  Basically, the Heels handed Marshall more minutes and he gave them a silly number of assists.  He turned the ball over 3 times - an assist to turnover ratio of better than 5:1.  Not a bad trade.  A lot of talking heads were bellowing about how devastating Drew II's departure from Carolina was for the team.  Nonsense.  Marshall reminds me of Mark Jackson; not fleet of foot, but very much in control and possessing great court vision.

We'll see what Marshall can do in Cameron tonight.  That shoebox separates the men from the boys.

Carolina Without Drew II

Larry Drew II decided to transfer from UNC today, and I am willing to bet that the Tarheels will be better off without him.  As much as any team in the country, UNC relies on a system.  Roy Williams' version of this system (based on Dean Smith's system, of course), relies on a point guard that distributes the basketball and knows when to push the ball off a rebound, a blocked shot and, to a lesser extent, off a made basket (because it is more difficult to push the ball when you have to inbound it).

Carolina point guards do not have to be money shooters, and they certainly don't have to be shoot first point guards (that is counter productive).  Ty Lawson was a good scorer for Carolina, but his numbers were gravy - he was not the focal point of that offense.  Hansbrough was the player around whom they ran their offense, and the supporting cast (i.e., Ellington, Green, Davis) played a big part in their success as well.  Lawson was so unbelievably quick that he wound up getting lay-ups and wide open jumpers.  Nobody questioned what his primary job was...push the ball and run the offense.

Raymond Felton averaged 12.9 points a game in 2005 when the Heels won the NCAA Tournament.  He had 17 in the final against Illinois, but his value was in his ability to push the ball quickly and get the ball into the hands of other players for high percentage shots.

It seems to me that Larry Drew II was not satisfied with his role.  UNC is one of the programs in the country where, if you are not buying into the system, you have to go.  My guess is that the unwritten rule is do what we tell you to do, or declare for the draft (or we bench you until you decide to go elsewhere in this case).   UNC will hand the reigns to a freshman in Kendall Marshall, although they obviously had made it clear to Drew that he  had to conform to their system or risk losing minutes, which is what they did in January. They probably banked on Drew stepping up, but they're certainly not losing much with his decision.  After all, Marshall was a McDonald's All-American.  The consensus was that Marshall was the best passer / playmaker in the country last year.

I think Drew had chances to adapt his game to the role the UNC coaching staff needed him to play, and did not want to do it.  One thing this proves to me is that, no matter how good you think you are, you're not bigger than UNC basketball.  As an NC State graduate, I both hate them (which is required) and respect them for it.

Carolina Could Be A Team To Watch

The Tarheels have cracked the top 25 after a disappointing November and December.  There is a ton of talent on this team, but early season expectations were far too high.  The pre-season hype around Harrison Barnes was a microcosm of UNC's problem early in the year.  This team is young, and it looks like they've worked through the chemistry problems that plagued them before the new year. 

Carolina is not all the way there, as they haven't demonstrated the killer transition game that Roy Williams' teams have mastered over the years.  Typically, UNC gets a third of their points on the secondary break, and I didn't even see that type of efficiency against an NC State team that has shown itself to be poor at transition defense all year.

The good news for Carolina fans is that Harrison Barnes is playing better.  He can shoot from beyond the arc and has shown that he can go to the hole with authority and finish.  My guess is that they will be playing their best basketball of the year in March and could make some noise.  They need to overcome their weaknesses, though...their lack of beef down low and their 3 point shooting.  If they could shoot a little better from beyond the arc this could solve both their problems. 

Sometimes I Hit the Nail on the Head

The following is from a piece by Dana O'Neil of ESPN that I read today:

"As I watched the final seconds tick away in a 93-78 St. John’s win over third-ranked Duke, I kept thinking of Gary Charles.

The longtime director of the Long Island Panthers, Charles is one of those guys you go to when you want to get your arms around what matters and who matters in New York City basketball.

Back in September, I called him and asked him what the most important thing Steve Lavin could do at St. John’s.

“Win back New York...Everybody’s been waiting for that. There’s nothing like sitting in the Garden, watching St. John’s. People want that back.’"

I wrote a similar opinion in my January 11th post: "St. John's fans have been waiting for so long to go crazy in the Garden that the boost to the program if the Red Storm can win tomorrow (against Syracuse) would be enormous."  It turns out that the Orange beat St. John's pretty easily, but St. John's more than redeemed themselves today when they blew out Duke today at the Garden.

Since St. John's and Duke have been scheduling this game regularly, there have been some great games.  I saw the Red Storm roll into Cameron Indoor Stadium in 2000 and beat the Number 2 Blue Devils. Bootsy Thornton hit a contested 3 at the buzzer in one of the most exciting college basketball games I have ever seen live.  There were 8 future NBA players participating in that game, blocking shots into the seats, going coast to coast and throwing down monster dunks, and hitting 3's that normal college players have no business attempting.  By the way, the definition of isolation is being the only SJU fan at the deathtrap that is Cameron 5 minutes after Duke loses.  I may have been the only person in that hot box wearing red and clearly would have been lynched if they had found out I went to a state school. 

In an equally great game the year before, Bootsy dropped 40 on Duke at the Garden.  Duke wound up winning in overtime, but Thornton and Artest were absolutely amazing.  Recently, Duke has dominated the series, but this year's game has re-kindled a flame that had been burning out.

I am so looking forward to St. John's competing at the Garden, because there is no other venue like it.  When St. John's ascends to being one of the top teams in the country again, NYC and the Garden will rock.  Believe me, there's  nothing like it.

The Big East - 11 Teams in the NCAA's?

Joe Lunardi of ESPN has 11 Big East Teams in the NCAA Tournament Field as of today.  I love the Big East, but I have to think that 11 is a little optimistic.  As it stands now, Pitt, Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame are locks.  Cincinnati and West Virginia are probables, but either could collapse.  There are others with serious problems to overcome.

So far, St. John's can't hit free throws at home to put away opponents and, unfortunately for them, they still have to play Georgetown, Duke, Pitt, Villanova, Marquette, and UCONN.  Oh yeah, UCLA at Pauley and at Cincinnati (who just beat St. John's at the LOU).  They won't be in the field of 64 in all likelihood.  Rutgers has beaten nobody worth mentioning, and still has Villanova, Pitt, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville and Cincinnati on their schedule.  They will likely fold under the competition as well.  Marquette has a similar gauntlet to run, although they beat Notre Dame earlier in the year.  It's likely that 2 of these 3 teams, St. John's, Rutgers, and Marquette, will drop off because of unusually tough schedules from here forward. 

I think 9 teams from the Big East is assured, even money on 10 to get in, and 11 is unlikely.  The teams towards the bottom-middle of the pack will beat on each other and succumb to the powerhouses in the league. 

This brings up another interesting point.  The Big East, if the Committee spreads the powerhouse teams out, has a better chance of advancing 4 teams to the Final Four than any other conference in history, because Pitt, Syracuse, Villanova, UCONN, and Notre Dame can play with anybody.  Louisville has a coach who tends to surprise people in March and Georgetown (who currently sits 11th in this freakazoid League) is a capable club as well.

Ohio State

I have had the opportunity to watch Ohio State since they have ascended to Number One in the polls and I am impressed.  Their strengths are many while their weaknesses are few.  However, let me state now that Kansas deserves to be Number One at this point, and if this weekend goes the way I believe it will, Kansas will take the top spot.

The Buckeyes are an exceptional shooting team.  Overall, they are shooting 50% from the field and 40% from behind the arc.  Their top 3 scorers, Sullinger, Buford, and Lighty (who seems like he's been around for 10 years), take about half of their shots.  Sullinger, who makes his living in the paint, shoots 58% from the field, while Buford hits 46% of his shots (including 41% of his treys).  Lighty hits 48% of his shots and 46% of his threes.  They have a 3 point specialist in John Diebler who takes far more 3's than anyone else on this team and hits 47% of them.  I saw him hit 3 in a row last week...all were contested and none hit the rim.  They put up 79 points per game (72 in Big Ten games).  In a nutshell,  they are typical of Thad Matta's teams...balanced and smart in terms of shot selection.  They also distribute the basketball, averaging over 17 assists per game as a team while their leader in assists averages less than 5 per game.  Their players are unselfish, making the extra pass to get better shots.

Defensively, they are more than solid.  They have given up over 70 points one time this year to a Florida team like likes to push the ball.  Ohio State beat them by 18, and the Buckeyes were on cruise control during the latter part of that game.  Overall, their opponents shoot 41% from the field and 32% from beyond the arc.  They only give up 56 points per game, and in Big Ten play so far they have allowed a little under 63 points per game.  Basically, you have to work hard to score against them.  Making things more difficult, the Buckeyes cause 18 turnovers per game.

The only two weakness as far as I can see is that they are not very deep and they don't dominate the backboards.  Their rotation consists of 8 players, and all of their starters average over 30 minutes per game. Their 2 main bench players average over 17 minutes and the third averages 10.  They may succumb to fatigue in March because by then they will have gone through a physical Big Ten schedule and Tournament.  The fact that they have only had 4 players foul out all year (each just 1 time) is a double-edged sword.  Their best players don't have to take a seat because of foul trouble, but they are not extending their bench and giving their best players rest. In Big Ten games they are even with their opponents in rebounds.  While ideally you want a clear rebounding advantage, this hasn't been an exploitable weakness yet because Ohio State shoots so well and causes 7 more turnovers per game than they commit. 

I like the way this team competes and their balance.  You can shut down Sullinger or Buford and still get torched by Lighty or Diebler.  On the other end, you have to take care of the basketball and work to get good shots.  However, they still have the tough part of their schedule left to play: Illinois twice, Wisconsin twice, Purdue, and Michigan State.  After running that gauntlet, I could see them being a little tired in the NCAA tournament against a physical team from, say, the Big East and getting bumped off in the Round of Sixteen if they're not careful.  

First Time In A While

It took Steve Lavin about five minutes to change the mood for all St. John's fans from frustrated to hopeful.  After 2 months, the Red Storm are playing a game that means a lot for both teams on the floor.  Syracuse has an undefeated record on the line tomorrow night, while St. John's needs wins over ranked teams to make a case for their first NCAA Tournament bid in what seems like decades.  The Big East is so brutal this year...every win counts because there are eight or nine teams in the league that look as though they belong in the field of 64 (oh, I mean 68).

I grew up in Brooklyn during the 1980's when the Big East was as talented as it is today.  Of course, St. John's was at the top of the Big East in the 80's as opposed to the past few years when they have been also rans.  Tomorrow's game at the Garden represents an opportunity to step onto one of basketball's hallowed halls and show the country that St. John's basketball is officially back.  Given the recruits Lavin has coming in next year, the future looks bright for the program, but St. John's fans have been waiting for so long to go crazy in the Garden that the boost to the program if the Red Storm can win tomorrow would be enormous.

Of course, Boeheim's team will be prepared and they are tough.  I am as excited about a St. John's game as I have been since Mike Jarvis was coach.  It's a long time coming.

Duke Without Irving

The Blue Devils continue to coast, and with the ACC being weak this year, the absence of Kyrie Irving will not be a major problem for them.  My guess is that they will not bring Irving back until he is 100%, and by the time that happens they may as well shut him down for the year.  He would disrupt team chemistry on a team that lives and dies with team chemistry.

The Blue Devils will plan their offensive and defensive strategies without Irving in the mix.  I don't think it will affect their ability to win the ACC and gain a number 1 seed in March.  If there is a team out there that can overcome the loss of a star, it's Duke.  That program is a machine, and we'll see it again this year.

Continue Watching BYU

Fredette went off for 39 last night, and he was complemented by Emery's 22 and Davie's 15.  They played UNLV even on the boards and held the Rebels to 40% shooting.  UNLV was averaging 49% from the field before this game, and BYU was able to disrupt their offense all night.

I reiterate, watch BYU...they have the best scorer (and maybe the best player...please watch him for one game and you'll see) in the country.  Now it seems that they have at least 2 other players who can step up.  THIS TEAM IS POTENTIALLY LETHAL.